Łukasz Gruszczyński: International Trade in the (post-)Covid-19 World
2020/34
This article argues that although some of the short-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for international trade are potentially serious, they do not appear to be unmanageable. One could therefore expect that once the pandemic disappears, or is at least under control, international trade will go back to business as usual. However, in the long-term perspective the potential impact of the pandemic can be more profound than initially anticipated, leading to structural changes in the process of economic globalization. While the seeds of such a process were sown some time ago, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to exacerbate existing tendencies for States to turn inward and compete more openly for economic and political dominance in the world. In this context, the article argues that the extent of the potential transformation will depend, among the other things, on the length and severity of the current pandemic. The larger is its health and economic impact, the greater are chances that we will see structural changes in international trade relations.